Michigan State Open Preview (11-5-2022)

 

Here's a tournament that deserves a lot more recognition & attention than what it has received. While the Michigan State Open has been around ever since I started following collegiate wrestling, it has significantly improved within the past few years. Ranked wrestlers at every weight. All Americans getting defeated. This isn't one of those enter & easily win it opens. It's a tough, competitive tournament & it should be acknowledged as such. 

NOTE: Photographs will have in order: ranking, name, school name & what place the wrestler took if they placed here last season. 

125 lbs 

Looking over results & trying to make sense out of all of the parity that is 125 lbs will drive a man mad I tell you. What I do know is that if everyone shows up, taking a top six showing at the Michigan State Open this season will be something worth listing on one's resume.  Champion Joey Prata of Oklahoma returns to defend his title but at this point I think it'd be most fair to give him either a #2 or a #3 seed.  Even though Ohio State's Malik Heinselman is ranked higher, I would still personally go with Prata as the #2, as he's defeated Heinselman head to head on two different occasions, 4-2 & 5-2. The obvious choice here for #1 is 4th place All American, Michael DeAugustino of Northwestern. He is ironically enough 2-1 against both Prata and Heinselman.  I would then give Justin Cardani of Illinois, 3rd here last season the #4 seed. He lost to Prata here last year in a 3-2 tiebreaker & he owns victories over both DeAugustino & Heinselman. Vs DeAugustino he is 1-3 & Vs Heinselman he is also 1-3.  I give Cardani the nod over Michigan's Jack Medley for two reasons. Even though the Fighting Illini & Wolverine are tied at 1-1, Cardani's 9-4 victory sticks out more than Medley's 3-2. It's also noted that Medley  is 0-4 against Heinselman & that he has a sore thumb loss to Benny Gomez of Michigan State.  This leaves me with who I would seed #6.   As said Benny Gomez does own an impressive victory over Medley, but Northern Illinois' Bryce West has shown to have a couple of tricks up his sleeve in the past as well. Believe it or not he owns falls over Cardani & Heinselman. He also took DeAugustino into sudden victory last year. However, head to head Gomez beat up on West pretty bad 10-3. The other guy here to keep an eye on that may very well get that #6 seed is Ohio's Oscar Sanchez. He's defeated West twice by scores of 6-3 & 11-4 & he took Cardani into the tiebreakers. If your head doesn't hurt yet, now let me say that Tristan Lujan, a returning 6th placer from last season owns a 6-3 victory over Sanchez. Seed it or predict it anyway you want, the possibilities here are endless. 

133 lbs 

If you ask me who I think our top six place-winners will be, no problem. I'll give them to you & here they are. Now ask me to try and seed them or to predict what order they'll finish in...

It's not lost on me that Oklahoma's Anthony Madrigal not only won this tournament last season, but it was the best he's looked his entire collegiate career. Defeated Michigan's Dylan Ragusin, Illinois' Lucas Byrd & Michigan State's RayVon Foley in route to a title. It's also not lost on me that he didn't wrestle as well towards the end of the season, with a standout loss to Utah Valley's Haiden Drury, as well as losses to Byrd & Northwestern's Chris Cannon. I think at this point you have to give the #1 seed to Byrd, & then sit and debate on whether to give the #2 seed to Ragusin or Foley. Head to head, Ragusin owns a 3-2 victory to Foley's 7-2 victory over him.  Perhaps the tiebreaker here would be that while both have losses to Byrd, Ragusin has defeated Byrd whereas Foley never has. I put both head of Cannon as despite rankings, both Ragusin & Foley own wins over Cannon.  At this point this is what I have...

#1 Byrd
#2 Ragusin
#3 Foley
#4 Cannon
#5 Madrigal
#6 Drury 

I think all of the notable wins for Madrigal have more weight than does the head to head loss to Drury.  Either way, from the quarters on through to the finals, we have some great wrestling to look forward to. 

141 lbs 

A little more cut and dry here as to the potential seeding, but I will say that this particular weight class has a ton of unranked talent eager and hungry to prove themselves.  3rd in the Michigan State Open last season, our forerunner for the top seed is Dylan D'Emilio. He has proven himself against the rest of the field, including a 7-1 decision over likely #2 seed Frankie Tal-Shahar of Northwestern. Will this be our final? It could be. A lot would depend on where Cole Mattin of Michigan gets seeded in comparison to Mosha Schwartz of Oklahoma. If Mattin gets the #3 seed, that would pose well for him as he's already shown he can defeat Tal-Shahar with a 3-2 decision.  So take seeds one through four, interchanging three and four. 

#1 D'Emilio 
#2 Tal-Shahar
#3/#4 Schwartz
#3/#4 Mattin

As to seeds #5 & #6 it gets a bit more tricky.  A lot of these wrestlers have never met before. Would Jaivon Jones 4th place finish here last season hold water? Maybe.  I also think Ohio's Kyran Hagan would be a good candidate for a #5 or #6 seed as well.  

What I do know is that I wouldn't be shocked at any upsets if they were to happen here. Caleb Rea of Cleveland State always has one or two that he pulls out every season. Jordan Hamdan will be competing in front of a home crowd, so we could see him make some magic happen. Then of course there is Ty Smith of Utah Valley who despite not having anything in between either operates with the switch on or the switch off. 

149 lbs 

You want to talk about a tough weight class? If everyone that can show up, shows up let me put it to you this way. We have TWO returning champions & the chances of either winning the tournament again are very slim. Matter of fact, it'll be a chore if either one wants to place within the top six. 

If I were in charge of the seeds, I would put Sammy Sasso of Ohio State at #1. I think you do so because he owns a victory over Ridge Lovett of Nebraska & three victories over Yahya Thomas of Northwestern. A 7-6 victory for Lovett over Thomas, gives him the nod for the #2 seed. May I say that's a potential semi-final I look very forward to.  

Seeds #4, #5 & #6 a bit harder to decipher. 

Due to his high ranking, Willie McDougald of Oklahoma makes a case for the #4 seed, as does his teammate Mitch Moore who was 2nd here last season.  I'd put Moore ahead of McDougald due to the latter's losses to both Hagan as well as Anthony Cheloni of Northern Illinois.  The question here is what cancels what out? Do you give McDougald the nod head of both Hagan & Lamer due to higher ranking? Or do you give the nod to Hagan & Lamer due to both being champions this past season?  

Here's what I would do...

#1 Sasso
#2 Robb
#3 Thomas
#4 Moore
#5 Hagan
#6 Lamer

Does that seem fair? 

Plenty of room for upsets in this bracket. Cheloni was 4th here last year, losing a tight 2-1 decision to Hagan in the semi-finals.   He'll be looking to place again. Kevon Davenport of Illinois is always tough & the guy I will be paying particular attention to is Michigan State's Peyton Omania.  Home crowd advantage, wrestling on his own mats. I can see this favoring the Spartan. He's taken Robb into sudden victory, he's wrestled Thomas to a two point match & he wrestled Sasso to a 7-6 decision.  This would be a great time for him to come alive & show the wrestling world what he's made of. 

157 lbs

It's a little more clear, cut and dry here at 157. The obvious candidate for the top seed is Will Lewan of Michigan as he has three victories over last year's champion Chase Saldate of Michigan State, who I would give the #2 seed. Ranking alone would give Ohio State's Paddy Gallagher a shot at the #3 seed, but I can't help but think his ranking is based more in faith & potential at this point than what it is in actual result. I have absolutely no problem being proven wrong, but their are some pretty tough wrestlers in this bracket. Being told "can", "should" or even "will" doesn't hold a candle to actually seeing it happen on the mat. So in that case, I would actually give the #3 seed to last year's runner-up Tulga Zuunbayan of Northern Illinois. Rounding out to the #4 & #5 seeds I'd go with Marcus Robinson of Cleveland State & Corbyn Munson of Central Michigan. Robinson not only has a higher ranking, but he also owns to victories over Munson.  The #6 seed, I would weigh Gallagher's ranking against Northwestern's Trevor Chumbley's returning 5th place finish. Either way, one would get the seed, & the other still a dangerous threat at a top six finish.  Another threat in this bracket to potential place is Zuunbayan's teammate Anthony Gibson. 

165 lbs 

Whatever sense we were able to make out of 157 lbs, we return to 165 lbs in complete chaos. Going based on ranking alone, the seeding might look something like this....

#1 Amine
#2 Kharchla
#3 Olejnik 
#4 Nijenhuis
#5 Braunagel
#6 Hubbard

And...it might very well turn out that way, but let's take a few things into consideration. 

Michigan's Cam Amine is 0-2 against Illinois' Danny Braunagel.  The Illini has taken the Wolverine into sudden victory twice & defeated him by scores of 3-1 & 7-5. He's also 1-1 with Ohio State's Carson Kharchla, having defeated the Buckeye 3-1 s.v. & having lost to him 3-2. 

Braunagel is also 2-1 against Northern Illinois' Izzak Olejnik. 6-1 & 7-5 victories Vs a 12-7 loss. If you haven't figured it out yet, Braunagel is the monkey wrench in this situation & when discussing Braunagel you have to bring up his extremely strange back & forth with Northwestern's David Ferrante. These guys take turns kicking the crud out of one another.  In their first meeting it was all Illini as Braunagel made a Thanksgiving feast out of Ferrante 24-11. Yet their next two meetings the Wildcat sang the Meow Mix song all the way as he sharpened his claws, defeating Braunagel 11-5 & 14-6. Then in their fourth meeting, Braunagel nearly teched Ferrante 14-3!  Do you care to predict what will happen if the two meet at this tournament??  As to the other competition Ferrante hasn't fared as well.  He has two losses to Olejnik as well as losses to Kharchla & Michigan State's Caleb Fish. 

Amine has defeated Fish twice, holding the Spartan to only escapes as he's defeated him 5-1 & 11-1.  Amine also owns two close victories over Olejnik 4-2 & 2-1 tiebreaker.  For note, Kharchla handled Fish rather easily 14-6. 

So there's the information, make of it what you will. 

174 lbs 

I tell you the first thought that is going through my mind when I examine all of the wrestlers who could potentially show up for this tournament.  I FINALLY get to see Edmond Ruth of Illinois against some top DI competition! I've been hearing about how great this guy is & how much damage he's going to do for FIVE years!!! I'm sick of the hype, I want to see it. He's either as good as everyone says he is, or he's not. He'll be tested here. Ethan Smith of Ohio State, Demetrius Romero of Utah Valley, returning Michigan State open champion Troy Fisher of Northwestern. Ruth will certainly be tested here. 

As to seedings? I think it's only fair at the moment to give the top seed to Smith & the #2 seed to Romero. Both returning All Americans from previous seasons & Smith has a 14-5 major decision over Fisher, who I would give the #3 seed. 

#4 seed is where I would place Ruth at the moment, excited to see the plausible semi between him & Smith.   #5 to Sal Perrine & do you give #6 to Alex Cramer of Central Michigan or to Michigan State's D.J. Shannon?  Tough call.  Shannon's argument may be that he's had two very close matches with Fisher, having taken the Wildcat to 4-3 & 3-1 decisions. 

184 lbs 

I think the real question to consider here as we look at the 184 lbs weight class is where exactly to put Matt Finesilver of Michigan. He's spent his entire career thus far at 174 lbs. We've seen wrestlers move up to 184 from 174 in the past with varying degrees of success. At this point, one can only speculate.  

I think the clear #1 favorite here is Ohio State's Kaleb Romero, but it does put into question who we would seed #2.  While this is posted post the Oklahoma Sooner wrestle-offs, keep in mind that it was written before. The rankers obviously believe Keegan Moore will beat out Darrien Roberts, but I'm not as sure about it. While Moore has proven himself a top 12, maybe even a top 8 wrestler in the country, Roberts is no slouch. Matter of fact, if Roberts were to win this wrestle-off, I'd gladly give him the #2 seed. If he loses, I think you either give him the #3 or the #4, depending on how you feel about him in comparison to Finesilver. Finesilver has the better track record, but again it's at 174 Vs Roberts who has competed at 184. 

The #5 seed I believe would have to go to Layne Malczewski, who very well could pull off an upset or two competing on his mats in his arena. The #6 seed, DeAndre Nassar of Cleveland State, another tough wrestler capable of an upset of his own. 

The guy I'm anxious to watch is Jack Jessen of Northwestern. I can't help but wonder how his stroke of pure luck last season has effected his confidence. His combined record the last two seasons is 3-20. Yes, you read that right, 3-20. Yet keep in mind, the schedule Northwestern keeps is no joke. He faces top 30 opponents on a week-in and week-out basis. Upsetting his way to NCAA qualification may have triggered something in his brain to where we see a complete 180 out of him this season. Then again maybe it was simply one of the biggest flukes in NCAA wrestling history.  We'll find out, won't we? 

197 lbs 

I've been saying all summer & fall that this weight class is wide open & I believe we'll see a glimpse of that here. No matter how you seed this, it's 197, upsets will happen.  Here's how I would seed it & why. 

#1 Caffey
#2 Hoffman
#3 Braunagel
#4 Davison
#5 Bockman
#6 Perrine

Although Gavin Hoffman of Ohio State returns an All American with a higher ranking, I give the #1 seed to Cam Caffey of Michigan State on a head to head 3-2 victory. Caffey has also defeated Davison, Bockman, Perrine, Striggow & Braunagel.  Hoffman has a 5-2 victory over Davison. 

As to why Braunagel at #3 & Davison at #4? Well as does brother Danny, Zac too enjoys producing results that make predictions a nightmare. While he has 14-3 & 7-6 losses to Caffey, he also owns a 15-7 major decision over the Spartan.   Evan Bockman of Utah Valley, the clear favorite for the #5 seed as far as I'm concerned. Anthony Perrine of Cleveland State, the #6. 

I included Bobby Striggow of Michigan here because I do think that he has ability and potential to pull out a handful of notable victories this season. Will any of them be here? They very well could be. 

HWT 

This could most certainly be an interesting one. If Mason Parris of Michigan enters the weight class, he'll not only be the #1 seed, but he'll win the tournament without much challenge.  The real question here, is who will he face in the finals? 

The #2 seed would only be fair to go to last year's champion Lucas Davison of Northwestern. While he is 1-1 with Ohio State's Tate Orndorff, a 0:46 fall stands out over at 10-5 decision. He's also ranked higher & a returning All American to Orndorff's R12 finish (Although Orndorff was an All American in 2021).  

I would actually give the #4 seed here to Luke Luffman of Illinois who is currently redshirting. He actually owns a 3-2 victory over Orndorff & has wrestled him to 3-2 & 3-1 sudden victory losses in the other two matches.  His most recent matches to Davison, 3-1 & 3-2 losses. 

The #5 seed, Josh Heindselman of Oklahoma who was a runner-up here last season, leaving the #6 to Jayden Woodruff of Utah Valley. 

That leaves Matt Wroblewski of Illinois (4th here last season) & Ryan Vasbinder of Michigan State who both could sneak into a top six finish. 


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These are my thoughts on the Michigan State Open. I'm sure that the brackets will not be this loaded, although I would love for them to be. We never knew exactly who is going to wrestle & who isn't, up until mere moments before the start of the tournament. We can see the teams that  are coming & hope for the best.  What I do know for sure is that last year's MSU Open was one of the best ones I've seen in a long time. I predict this one to be as good or better.