This is the dual of duals. Everyone and their dog is weighing in on this one and JT#1 will be no different. We have what could very well be the most watched dual meet in television history coming up this Friday between the #2 Iowa Hawkeyes and the #1 Penn State Nittany Lions.
I've sat down and evaluated this dual up and down about five times now. What I'm about to say may get my Iowa Hawkeye wrestling fan card permanently revoked. Over the last 23 years, I've made some other statements that have gotten it removed, but I usually get it back. Not sure if I will this time or not.
I can't score this an Iowa win. Not if I'm being honest. Not if my job is to report candidly with integrity. Even if Drake Ayala was in the lineup, the best I see it for Iowa is 15-17. Which in my opinion would be a Hell of a showing against one of the best NCAA DI teams I've ever seen put together, but we're talking Iowa here. B&G faithful only want to hear talk of coming into Centre County, stepping out onto Penn State's mat, and in their house, in front of their people, knocking them off.
I'm sorry, but I don't see it happening.
With Ayala out of the lineup, I only see one match favoring the Hawkeyes, and to be honest, it is still one that I'm not completely sold on. At the same time, I see six matches favoring the Nittany Lions, with all six having merit behind the favor. Three tossup matches.
Iowa is going to have to bring their A game to every match. 100% ain't gonna cut it. Only 110% will do.
If we're betting people, as of right now, I have this scored
Penn State 21
Iowa 12
Here are my thoughts on the matches....
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| #7 Luke Lilledahl Vs #26 Joey Cruz 125 |
There are a lot of wrestling fans who are still in the faith that true freshman Luke Lilledahl could win both a BIG 10 & an NCAA DI title by season's end. 11-1 on the season, he's shown why the blue and white faithful have such confidence in him. I think Joey Cruz is coming along for the Hawkeyes. His recent victory over Brendan McCrone of Ohio State shows that he's buying into the system and making the necessary improvements and adjustments necessary to adhere to the standards. However, has he got himself a test on Friday. We're talking Advanced calculus.
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| #7 Braeden Davis Vs U.R. Kale Peterson 133 |
It's a real shame that Drake Ayala is out right now, as I think that this match with Braeden Davis would have been one of the best of the evening. Wrestling is a lot like life however, often unfair. No doubt about it, Kale Peterson will go out on the mat wings spread, talons and beak ready to pierce, but the Lion will be ready with razor sharp claws and a biteforce of 400 pounds per square inch. This is where Penn State can really show their dominance. I predict no less than a major decision here.
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| #3 Beau Bartlett Vs Ryder Block, Jace Rhodes or Cullan Schriever 141 |
I'm not sure who the Hawkeyes send out on the mat against Beau Bartlett, and I'm not sure if it matters. Regardless if it is Block, Rhodes or Schriever, the key here will be to avoid bonus points, and against the 2024 DI finalist, good luck. 12 matches so far on the year, 7 of them have ended in bonus points. 3 falls, two techs, and three majors.
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| #4 Shayne Van Ness Vs #2 Kyle Parco 149 |
Kyle Parco has the higher ranking, but Shayne Van Ness owns the head-to-head in a 7-2 decision. That means that the two cancel each other out & we've got a toss-up right? That's how I'm treating this match anyway. Kyle Parco is a four time All American, looking to not only become a five time All American by the end of 2025, but to also become a national champion. If he wants to stand atop the podium in Philadelphia this March, he's going to have to beat everyone in front of him. This includes SVN. Flip the coin over, same thing for the Nittany Lion. He has to beat everyone in front of him, including Parco. I'd say these two are likely to meet at least once if not twice more after this encounter. Who wins match one of '24-'25?
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| #3 Tyler Kasak Vs #1 Jacori Teemer 157 |
After a two-month layoff, Jacori Teemer looked slick and sharp against a Sammy Sasso we all know is far from 100%. How does the Hawkeye fare Friday night against Tyler Kasak, who has nothing on his mind other than taking the #1 ranking and making it his own? Tom Brands preaches that nothing is ever deserved, everything has to be earned. If Teemer is to hold on to his #1 ranking, you bet the farm that Kasak is going to make him earn every bit of that victory. We're competing in Penn State's house, which might as well be thought of as the Roman Coliseum at this point.
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| #1 Mitchel Mesenbrink Vs #2 Mikey Caliendo 165 |
I'm a big fan of Mikey Caliendo's and I'd love to see the Hawkeye give Mitchel Mesenbrink a good fight here, but the results don't lie. So far in three matches, the Nittany Lion has ripped and shred the Hawkeye up pretty good. 17-9, 23-7, and 12-6 have been the scores. Things can happen. The only certainty this sport guarantees us with is uncertainty. Probability is never 0, but the under/over highly favors the blue & white in this one.
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| #2 Levi Haines Vs #6 Pat Kennedy 174 |
As far as I'm concerned, I feel that Pat Kennedy has already made his case for why he should be the starter come BIG 10's. That's taking nothing away from Nelson Brands. That's simply telling it like it is about Patrick Kennedy. Now if you disagree with me, fair. However, if Kennedy were to pull off an upset Friday night against Haines, case closed. Kennedy is showcasing his value, and I say while knocking off Haines may be a tall order, he at least shows that he belongs out on the mat with him. I may very well eat those words later on, and I'm well aware of it. I know how good the two-time national finalist/NCAA DI champ is. I still think Kennedy can keep this to a respectable decision.
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| #1 Carter Starocci Vs #5 Gabe Arnold Iowa |
Call it arrogance. Call it delusion. Call it whatever you want, it takes a tremendous amount of guts and courage to call out a four-time NCAA DI champion, going for his fifth NCAA DI title. I question Arnold's strategy here, and can't help but wonder if we're not going back 55 years in time, and channeling a little Larry Owings and Dan Gable here. Psychological warfare. It's no secret that Owings got inside Gable's head in 1970, and that appears to be what Arnold is doing.
Iowa could end up wrestling Ferrari here instead, but from a marketing/promotional position, the people want to see Starocci & Arnold go at it. I'll repeat, the 2020 meeting between Iowa and Penn State is the most watched televised dual I believe of all time. (Some reports say of BIG 10 Network, some say T.V. period). There is hope that record gets broken this Friday night. In possibly doing so, I'm of the position that Starocci Vs Arnold, is our main event.
I listened to a podcast last night, where a fan said that he believes that Starocci will make Arnold regret the day he ever challenged him. Can you imagine the noise that will be made in Rec Hall or the Bryce Jordan Center? OMG, it'll be deafening. Now imagine if Arnold were to somehow, someway pull off the upset. You could hear a gnat fart from 10 miles away.
Setting has a lot to do with how we perceive and rate upsets, and I understand this isn't the NCAA DI finals in the last collegiate match that Starocci will ever wrestler. We're quite finicky as a fanbase. However, you can't tell me that an Arnold win here wouldn't rate somewhere on the list of all time greatest upsets. I mean come on, we're talking about a 4 time NCAA DI champ, looking to try and win a 5th title. Let's give it the stature it deserves.
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| #4 Josh Barr Vs #1 Stephen Buchanan 197 |
Here's the one match that favors the Hawkeyes and I don't think that favor is by much. We're not talking Rapunzel in a comparison to hair length here, we're talking the stubble currently a top of Cael Sanderson's head. Both Josh Barr and Stephen Buchanan have looked exceptionally good this season. Barr 12-0, has knocked off three All Americans, including majoring one & tech'ing another! Buchanan 13-0, bonus points in nearly 85% of his matches. Here's where we really start to see where both of these incredible athletes are in terms of being a national champion by '25's end.
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| #2 Greg Kerkvliet Vs #11 Ben Kueter HWT |
I know Ben Kueter is going to step out onto the mat and give Greg Kerkvliet everything he's got. I have no doubt about that, because that's the kind of guy Ben Kueter is. 110%, 100% of the time. With that said, Greg Kerkvliet is the #2 wrestler in the nation for good reason. If it weren't for Gable Steveson, he'd almost be a shoe-in for another national title. With that said, I was surprised how close Yaraslau Slavikouski wrestled him last week. Kept the match to a 2-0 decision, considering that Kerkvliet has literally pinned or tech'd everyone else he's stepped on the mat with this season. That result gives me reason to think that Kueter can keep this match to a decision. Kerkvliet defeated the Hawkeye 9-1 the last the two met.
