This year's ACC championships is going to be exceptionally competitive. There are only so many allocation spots for a ton of talented wrestler who want them. Hosted by the Duke Blue Devils look for this to be one of the fiercest tournaments the conference has ever seen.
125 |
First thing I have to say, is that my heart goes out to Jakob Camacho. Exactly what went wrong for him and why it went wrong for him I do not know. Yet 1st-2nd-1st-1st within the ACC, something was definitely off about him at the start of '24-'25. We haven't seen him since 11-23, and I'm not sure if we ever see him again or not. I'm going to guess no, since he already had a medical hardship. A sad ending to an otherwise very respectable career. Nevertheless it should end with some mention, rather than simply fade into the gray.
With that out of the way, 125 lbs is the only weight class I'll say this about concerning the ACC. We have four allocation spots, and I think for the most part things will happen on the mat as they're predicted to happen on paper. Perhaps not in perfect order, but come the end of the tournament, these will be our four Q's.
Parity has me questioning how the seeding will go.
2023 NCAA DI 7th place All American Eddie Ventresca owns a 4-1 s.v. over Vincent Robinson. Yet Robinson owns a 10-4 decision over Spencer Moore & Moore owns a 4-1 s.v. over Ventresca. Makes things fun doesn't it? For the record, Ventresca also owns a 15-1 major decision over Babin.
Robinson has mirrored other great Wolfpack members who have had outstanding freshman campaigns including Darrion Caldwell & Tariq Wilson. At 17-2, he could win his first title this weekend.
Moore was 3rd a year ago, in a bracket that only took the top two, and while I don't see Babin overcoming the other three, I think that 4th place spot has his name written all over it. I can't see anyone challenging him for it.
133 |
Five talented wrestlers, and only three allocation spots. I can see one at-large/wildcard being awarded here, but not two. There's going to be an odd man left out. That true 4th place match, should it be necessary, will be absolutely essential.
Two-time NCAA DI qualifier Ethan Oakley has earned the *1 seed as far as I'm concerned. A 4-2 decision over Tyler Knox & a 2-1 tie-breaker over Kai Orine, he's defeated Gable Porter twice. A 4-2 decision & a 6:00 fall.
While lower in the rankings, Connor McGonagle recently defeated Knox 3-0. He also owns a 4-1 s.v. over Orine & a 10-0 major over Porter. 12-1 on the season, he's a two-time NCAA DI qualifier in his own right.
Knox, a sensational freshman for the Cardinal, stands at 22-4 on the year & owns a 9-1 major over Orine.
Orine is the catalyst here. A two-time NCAA DI All American with back to back 8th place finishes, he's been 3rd-1st-1st in the past three ACC tournaments. The chances of him pulling off an upset (or more) and finishing 3rd (or higher) I believe is a higher probability than the chances of him finishing 4th (or lower). Should he finish 4th, I can't see the NCAA leaving him at home. I would think he's a shoe-in for an at-large wildcard. He can't finish any lower than 4th though. I do not see 5th going to the dance.
141 |
This time five candidates & only four allocations. Here I do not see 5th place awarded an at large/wildcard, so it's either place in the top 4 or stay home.
Two-time NCAA DI All American Sam Latona has thus far been 1st-2nd-3rd-2nd in the ACC, as he goes for his fifth placing, his fourth finals appearance & his second title. 22-6 on the year, the Hokie owns wins over every opponent he'll see this weekend. 7-0 over Troy Hohman, he owns a 2-0 decison over Jayden Scott, a 5-1 decision over Dylan Cedeno & a 9-6 s.v. over Jason Miranda.
Cedeno, a qualifier back in 2022, is 11-1 on the year. His only loss is to Latona. Owns two close victories over Jayden Scott by 5-3 & 2-0 scores & also owns a tight 3-2 decision over Miranda.
Miranda I have to say has been painstakingly close to NCAA DI qualification the past couple of seasons. The NCAA DI takes the top 33 wrestlers per weight, and I'll be damned if he hasn't been 34th each time or somewhere close to it. The Cardinal has been a staple of the word "team" and has won many important matches in many important dual meets. Owns a 2-0 decision over Scott.
Troy Hohman who at the moment seems the odd man out, does own a 5-3 decision over Miranda.
True 4th, should it be wrestled, will once again be a do or die situation.
157 |
Four allocation spots here at 157 lbs, and I think by the end of the qualification process, only four will be going to the dance. So six talents here, all ranked by the way, and two of these guys are probably staying home.
Returning NCAA DI champion Caleb Henson is 16-0 on the season. An ACC champ in 2023, he was actually a runner-up a year ago. He owns a 5-1 decision over Koy Buesgens, a 4-1 s.v. over Finn Solomon, a 19-5 major over Jack Gioffre, and both a 17-1 tech & 6:53 fall over Jaden Abas.
Lachlan McNeil a two-time NCAA DI All American with finishes of 4th & 6th, has been 3rd the past two ACC championships. 18-4 on the year, he owns a 9-1 major over Solomon, an 11-2 major over Buesgens & an 8-1 decision over Abas.
Abas 18-8 on the year is a four-time NCAA DI qualifier looking to become a five-timer. He was an All-American all the way back in 2021 with a 7th place finish. Owns a 5-2 decision over Buesgens & a 14-2 major over Gioffre.
Buesgens has a 4-1 decision over Solomon & a 4-2 decision over Gioffre.
Solomon was 3rd here a year ago.
157 |
A lot of fresh young talent in this group of eligible candidates. Surprisingly only three allocations, but I'd be shocked if at least one, if not possibly two at large/wildcards were not awarded. Of course it depends on how the rest of 157 lbs goes in the other seven conference tournaments.
Freshman Rafael Hipolito has certainly proven himself this year. 15-3 on the season, owns a 14-7 major decision over Sonny Santiago & a 3-2 decision over Ed Scott.
Scott, the "elder" of this group of talent, was an ACC champion last year. He's been R12 5th R12 at the NCAA DI's, so it is obvious that the guy knows how to win. Owns a 5-3 decision over Dylan Evans & a 5-4 decision over Santiago.
Evans, like Hipolito is another tough freshman. Actually owns a 4-1 s.v. over Hipolito & also used s.v. to defeat Grigor Cholokyan 11-8. Add in a 4-1 decision over Santiago. Who by the way, was the ACC runner-up last season.
Cholokyan, for the record is also a tough freshman. Hipolito, Evans & Cholokyan all stay at 157, this gives us three years of some great battles.
165 |
It amazes me how much the sport of wrestling can be like science. You can test it. You can predict it. You can think you have an understanding of it. Yet at the end of the day, it can do things you never thought it would do. It can become absolute chaos and confuse the hell out of you. Don't be the least bit surprised if that is what happens here at 165 lbs in the ACC.
Hunter Garvin, 6th in the D1 nation a year ago, is the favorite to win the title this weekend. He owns an 11-3 major over Mac Church, a 6-5 decision over Derek Fields, a 4-1 decision over Nick Hamilton & a 15-6 major over Jared Keslar. That's the positive of it. The other consideration to look at, is that Garvin has struggled in tournament settings. His seed should be the difference maker, but it'll still be a list of solid wins if he ends gold Sunday.
Nick Hamilton was an ACC champ last year. Owns both a 2-1 over Keslar & a 4-2 decision over Church.
Fields was third here a year ago, and owns a 14-6 major over Keslar.
Aiden Wallace is one of the few hopes host Duke has (and let's be frank, could really use) for NCAA DI qualification. The Blue Devil owns a 4-1 s.v. over Church. Keslar owns a 5-1 decision over Church & Church owns a 2-1 tiebreaker over Fields.
5 allocations here at 165 lbs & we already have six quality candidates fighting amongst them. Why in the world would I also include a guy who hasn't even won a single match this year? Am I crazy? Yeah, but I'm also a guy that has been a fan of wrestling for over 30 years & I've been watching it intensely since the 2001-2002 season.
I included Charlie Darracott for good reason. For one, the despite the 0 in the win column on the '24-'25 season, he is a tough wrestler. Look at the losses. 4-1 s.v. to Garvin. 4-1 s.v. to Hamilton. 4-1 to Keslar. 8-6 to Fields. You're telling me that it isn't plausible that he couldn't turn some of those losses into wins & walk out of here with a 5th place finish? Nonsense. The probability may not be in favor, but it sure as heck isn't zero either. We got a war here at 165, and Darracott will be a part of it.
174 |
Four allocations and five ranked wrestlers going for them. Here I would think the chance of a at large/wildcard being awarded would be decent. Definitely wouldn't guarantee it and would NOT rely on it, but I think it could possibly be there.
If you have Bernard Muir's phone number, feel free to leave the inept one a voice mail and let him know that among the many qualifiers that the Cardinal will have once this tournament is said and done, Lorenzo Norman could likely walk out of here with an ACC title. The freshman is 18-2 on the season, with an 8-6 decision over Luca Augustine.
Josh Ogunsanya, is a two-time NCAA DI qualifier, and has a 7-5 decision over Lennox Wolak, a 5-4 decision over Matty Singleton & a 15-13 decision over Norman.
Singleton owns a 12-2 major over Wolak.
Wolak who was 6th in the DI nation last season, isn't quite having the year he was hoping to have. Nevertheless he does own a 4:33 fall over Augustine.
Augustine, although he will most likely get the *5 seed, does own both a 6-4 decision over Ogunsanya & a 3-1 tiebreaker over Singleton.
Anyone else besides me find it ironic that Ogunsanya & Wolak at one time were teammates, and now both wrestle for different schools?
184 |
Three allocation spots here at 184 lbs. Can I see a wildcard/At large berth? I'm going to say that depends. If seeds hold, no. If there are some upsets, yes.
Reece Heller, 18-3 on the season, is a two-time NCAA DI qualifier. 3rd here a year ago, the Panther owns both a 6-2 & 2-1 decision over Dylan Fishback and he defeated Gavin Kane 7-5.
Fishback was a runner-up here a year ago. Owns a 14-5 major over Kane.
Kane, who you never know quite what to expect out of, is currently standing at 2nd-2nd-4th within the conference. He was 8th in the D1 nation, two seasons ago. Owns a 3:23 fall over T.J. Stewart.
As to Stewart, what's going on with him? Not sure. Sophomore slump, for whatever the reason. Keep in mind, we're still talking about a wrestler who won the ACC title last year & finished 7th in the DI nation. He earns an upset (or two) here, he throws this bracket all out of whack. In DI wrestling? That' a very real possibility.
197 |
Three allocations here at 197 and I'm pretty confident that the three who are slated to earn them, will earn them. I do however give props to the chance that there are two other wrestlers in this bracket, wil the tools and abilities to steal.
Max Stout, 21-2 on the season is a favorite to win the ACC title this tournament. 3rd last year, he owns a 10-1 major over Nick Stemmet, a 13-4 major over Christian Knop, a 11-2 major Cade Lautt & a 7-3 decision over Andy Smith.
Nick Stemmet will be going for his fourth NCAA DI qualification. Owns both a 4-2 decision over Smith & a 4-0 decision over Knop.
Smith, an NCAA R12'er last year, owns both a 2-1 decision over Knop & a 4-1 s.v. over Lautt.
Knop & Lautt are in the exact same boat. Two talented seniors, who have yet to make the NCAA DI tournament. Both are very capable of stealing a spot here at the ACC's, and that's the thing. They will HAVE TO steal a spot if they want to end their careers as an NCAA Q. If they do not, there will be no at large/wildcard.
HWT |
Five allocation spots & six wrestlers going for them. A possibility at an at large/wildcard bid for the one who takes 6th? Maybe.
No doubt about it, two-time NCAA DI qualifier Isaac Trumble will be ready to rumble on Sunday. 16-3 on the season, Jimmy Mullen gave him a 5-3 match, but other than that, it has been mowing through the competition for the largest wolf in the pack. A 2:37 fall over Nolan Neves, he owns a 10-1 major over Datyon Pitzer & a 19-3 tech over Peter Ming.
I wasn't sure if the Hokies would go with Mullen or Hunter Catka, as Catka himself is a worthy candidate. After all, we're talking about a guy with 3rd and 2nd place finishes within the ACC. Yet, I think Mullen is getting the nod here. The talented rookie owns a 13-4 major over Pitzer, a 2:33 fall over Ming, a 20-8 major over Neves & a 20-5 tech over Connor Barket.
Pitzer 3rd in the ACC a year ago, owns both a 13-6 major over Ming & a 6-2 decision over Barket.
Ming, a 12-5 decision over Barket.
Barket, one of two hopes for the host Duke to send wrestlers to the dance, owns a 10-6 decision over Neves.
===
So a quick run through of the math, we have 38 allocation spots and a total of 52 (in my opinion) eligible wrestlers going for them. Here's to at large/wildcard bids, cause they are certainly needed. Going to be some talented kids staying home this year. That's the skinny of it, you have to qualify.
So a quick run through of the math, we have 38 allocation spots and a total of 52 (in my opinion) eligible wrestlers going for them. Here's to at large/wildcard bids, cause they are certainly needed. Going to be some talented kids staying home this year. That's the skinny of it, you have to qualify.
No comments:
Post a Comment