Penn State beat Iowa last night like Iowa was a red-headed stepson. The Nittany Lions took it to the Iowa Hawkeyes, like no other #1 team has ever taken it to a #2 team. With the blue and white's outstanding showing, some fans were asking if the Nittany Lions could possibly win all 10 weight classes at the BIG 10's.
Is that a possibility? Does that have any probability to it?
Let's take a look.
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| Luke Lilledahl Penn State |
The freshman out of Wyoming Seminary has thus far had an outstanding season. 12-1 on the year, his only blemish is to Dean Peterson of Rutgers in a 4-1 decision. That's a loss that can easily be turned around. He also had a tough, tight match with Cornhusker Caleb Smith, winning a 4-2 decision. That doesn't so much concern me. What does is a current 20-0 on the year Matt Ramos of Purdue. The Boilermaker was an NCAA DI finalist in 2023, and doesn't look to want to collect anything other than what will match the gold on his singlet. While Peterson does own a win over Lilledahl, the Nittany Lion's biggest threat is still the Boilermaker.
Best BIG 10 Outcome? Champion
Worst? 3rd (Still some season left, so Lilledahl could get *2 seed, but likely to get *3 seed in my estimation. Meaning a match with Ramos is likely in the semis)
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| Braeden Davis 133 |
Jacob Van Dee dismantling the young Nittany Lion 14-7 earlier this season really gives JT#1 a lot of doubts about him winning a BIG 10 title. Add in the fact that this bracket will also feature Drake Ayala of Iowa & Lucas Byrd of Illinois. Davis didn't exactly light the world on fire against Dylan Shawver either, squeaking out a 2-1 victory.
I know good and well that Sanderson, as he always does, will have his Nittany Lions peaked for the post season. Yet, rip me to shreds and feed me to your cubs, I cannot see Davis getting past JVD, Ayala & Byrd to win a BIG 10 title. I'm sure I'll be @ a bunch, and I'm ok with that, if Davis proves me wrong but....
Best BIG 10 outcome? 3rd
Worst BIG 10 outcome? 6th (Keep in mind we haven't seen him against Bouzakis yet)
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| Beau Bartlett 141 |
I've been calling the senior one of the best wrestlers in all of DI wrestling yet to win an NCAA title. And that's true...he is. However, if he wants to win an NCAA DI title & if he wants to win a BIG 10 title, he has to get past Jesse Mendez of Ohio State. That's one Hell of a task, the toughest the Nittany Lion will have in '24-'25. He's faced the Buckeye on three occasions, and the score has been the same all three times. Mendez owns two 4-1 decisions & Bartlett owns one 4-1 decision.
With that said, also realize that Brock Hardy of Nebraska poses a threat to Bartlett. 8-7 & 9-6 decisions the Husker has shown he can give Bartlett a match, plus he also owns a 7-3 victory over him.
Bartlett take out Hardy in the semis & then take out Mendez in the finals? Yes, that's a possibility. Bartlett without a doubt can make that happen, but let's be honest, it is not a guarantee.
Best BIG 10 Outcome? Champion
Worst? 3rd
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| Shayne Van Ness 149 |
The way SVN sunk his claws into Kyle Parco last night was unreal. Parco is a damn good wrestler, and for SVN to demolish him 17-6 last night was nothing short of impressive. With that noted, let's keep in mind that Ridge Lovett manifested into John Henry Patterson & 10-2 major decisioned the Ghost & the Darkness earlier this season. That cannot be overlooked or ignored. Ironically enough, Parco is 2-0 against the Husker & we'll see if he can beat him a third time this Friday. That in itself will be very telling.
Can SVN turn around his loss to Lovett? I think so. In fact, I'd go as far as to say I know so. A lot of scrambling situations happened in that match, and Sanderson coached wrestlers never make the same mistakes twice.
So my analysis?
Best BIG 10 outcome? Champion
Worst? 2nd
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| Tyler Kasak 157 |
I'm going to say two things that will make some of you Nittany Lion fans curse me.
One, like it or not, if Sammy Sasso were 100% and wrestling like his old self (as in the wrestler he was before he was shot by a gun), Kasak would have a lot more to worry about than what he currently does. That's a fact.
Two, I'm not convinced that since coming back off of an injury that Jacori Teemer is 100%. Kasak looked very strong & as if his defense was impregnable winning a 5-2 decision last night. I wouldn't call that a shoe-in though. Not against the 2024 NCAA DI finalist, I wouldn't. Probability, very high, but not 100%.
Best BIG 10 outcome? Champion
Worst? 2nd
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| Mitchell Mesenbrink 165 |
You want a shoe-in? You want a guarantee? Wrestling doesn't have guarantees. Well, actually, yeah it does & at 165 in the BIG 10, that guarantee is Mitchell Mesenbrink. He's 4-0 against the #2 wrestler not only in the BIG 10, but in the nation. Not only 4-0, but all four wins have been by a significant margin, including tech'ing him last night! Unless he gets severely injured or contracts a deadly disease, no one is stopping Mesenbrink.
Best BIG 10 Outcome? Champion
Worst? Champion
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| Levi Haines 174 |
I wouldn't quite call as strong of a probability as is Mesenbrink, but I assure you the probability is still extremely high with Levi Haines. I mean, I will entertain the idea of Carson Kharchla plausibly knocking off the Nittany Lion, I'm not giving it very high odds on the over/under.
Best Big 10 Outcome? Champion
Worst 2nd
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| Carter Starocci 184 |
We're talking about a four time NCAA DI champion, looking to become a five time NCAA DI champion here. I don't think that is emphasized, hyped or celebrated enough. While people are going apeshit over true-freshmen, this unbelievable and furthermore UNMATCHABLE stat on Starocci only gets casual mention. I don't get that.
Many I think are making a little too much out of Angelo Ferrari's ability to keep Starocci to a 3-1 decision. I think Ferarri is very good. I think he'll win some national titles for Iowa before his collegiate career is said and done. You know what else I think? I think Starocci was wrestling very conservative last night. I don't think he was firing off at all cylinders and I don't think he was going after the Hawkeye at 100% capacity.
In the finals of this year's BIG 10, he's most likely (in fact, I'd bet on it) going to face one of two phenomenal freshmen. Either Gabe Arnold of Iowa (who most of the nation was hoping he'd face last night) or Max McEnelly (if you don't think McEnelly can beat Arnold in a BIG 10 semi-final, you haven't been paying attention).
I think once again we could see Starocci wrestle conservatively and not put himself at risk by executing offense. That's a possibility. Yet lose? We've seen it happen in the past. Three time DII champion Tony Champion getting knocked off in his final collegiate match. Dan Gable getting dethroned by the Washington sophomore. As pointed out, nothing is guaranteed. Yet I do not see the Nittany Lion being denied. He's going to be cemented in history.
Best BIG 10 Outcome? 1st
Worst? 1st
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| Josh Barr 197 |
I imagine reading through 165, 174, and 184, I'm probably on your good side if you're a Penn State fan. Well, I'm about to be disinvited to your birthday.
Josh Barr has thus far had an outstanding '24-'25. The freshman is looking like '26, '27 & '28 might all end in collecting gold medals from some of collegiate wrestling's toughest tournaments. You know what? '25 might end that way too. Not saying it can't. Not saying it won't.
He gave #1 ranked Stephen Buchanan a very tough match last night. A 4-1 loss, he didn't look like this wasn't a match he couldn't have won. He didn't look like this wasn't something he can work on, make improvements & turn into a W.
With that said, Buchanan isn't going to be Barr's only challenge at the BIG 10's. If you don't think Jacob Cardenas of Michigan poses a threat, I assure you, he does. 13-0 on the season, that's 7 techs, two major decisions and a fall. Barr gets past him, he'll have earn that victory. I also wouldn't sleep on Isaiah Salazar here either. I think come BIG 10's Barr will have the higher seed, but if Barr is matched up with him, this is not a match to be looking ahead.
Best BIG 10 Outcome? Champion
Worst? 4th
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| Greg Kerkvliet HWT |
This is simple and this is honest. Greg Kervliet isn't beating Gable Steveson. It's just not going to happen. No shame in it either. Collegiately speaking Gable Steveson is probably the best HWT we'll ever see. If he decides to dedicate his life to international wrestling, he might even surpass Bruce Baumgartner. That's how good the Golden Gopher is. He already owns 8-3 & 9-4 decisions over the Nittany Lion.
On the same hand, I'm very confident that no one else besides Steveson is beating Kerkvliet. BIG 10 has some tough HWT's, but I don't see anyone even remotely keeping Kerkvliet from making the finals.
Best BIG 10 Outcome? 2nd
Worst? 2nd
So here you have it.
I might end up getting served a large dish of crow. The Nittany Lions may very well crown 10 for 10 at the BIG 10's. Greg Kerkvliet may channel the spirit of Rulon Gardner and knock off the American version of Alexander Karelin in a match that will be talked about for decades to come. You never say never, but I'll channel a spirit of my own, Gorilla Monsoon, and say, "Highly unlikely."
Best I see it for Penn State?
8 champions
I do not see Davis with that many upsets & again, I do not see Kerkvliet upsetting Steveson. Everyone else though, I can see winning a BIG 10 title.
