Collegiate wrestling in a lot of ways is like politics. We can't go into a situation and assess it fairly. We have to throw on our big blue D hat or our big red R hat & mix in all of our biases, opinions and prejudices. Heaven forbid if we look at something objectively. Not here, not in college wrestling. Carver Hawkeye arena will be full of 15,000 or so screaming B&G faithful, and televisions all across the United States, let alone Pennsylvania & Iowa will be tuned in with very specific allegiances, be them pro-Hawkeye, pro-Nittany Lion, or anti one or the other.
If you are one of the rare & few, to look at this dual objectively, then it is obvious from a strictly talent & ability standpoint, the Hawkeyes have the firepower to go to war with the Nittany Lions. The issue here is preparation. For some reason this has been an issue for Brands & Co, while Sanderson Inc has never seemed to struggle with it.
ON PAPER (and I put that in all caps to make sure you saw it) there's no reason at all why Iowa shouldn't keep this one close, tie the team score, or even blow the roof off of Carver in handing Penn State their first loss in 79 duals.
Some might say that JT1Wrestle is now being the one who is biased. Even accuse me of being hypocritical & the truth is, no, I am not. I've analyzed this dual up and down, all 10 matches thoroughly. I know the places Iowa can win and I know the places where it is highly unlikely.
In the end? On the mat? I say Penn State probably leaves Iowa City with a rather decisive victory. Why? Because a lot of these matches are tossups & statistically speaking, the Nittany Lions matchup a lot better in this category than do the Hawkeyes. I'm not sure what it is that Sanderson says or does that has his guys so relaxed and confident in those situations where a point must by scored, a guy must be ridden out, or a takedown must be achieved, but if they aren't 100%, they're damn near it.
It's NOT a matter of talent. I stand by that 100%. It's not a matter of Penn State simply having a better team in terms of ability, skill and potential. Iowa has the wrestlers to compete with Penn State. Being in Carver Hawkeye and the fact that this is the focus, will help. I think the problem against Wisconsin is that Iowa was looking ahead to this date & not focusing on the Badgers.
Let me illustrate match by match...
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| #2 Luke Lilledahl Vs #4 Dean Peterson 125 |
Dean Peterson has already illustrated that he can beat Luke Lilledahl as he defeated the Nittany Lion last year by a 4-1 score. The thing about Penn State wrestlers though, is that they never stay the same. 99% of the time, they continue to get better. If you want to beat them, you have to continue to get better too & therein lies the question. Has Dean Peterson gotten better since transferring to Iowa? As much as some fans want to be pessimists and think wrestlers don't improve under the Iowa system, in this particular case the rankings say that he has. This is a crucial match if Iowa wants to show Penn State that they belong on the mat with them. A toss-up that must go the B&G's way. The confidence of knowing that he has already beaten him, and having 15K people cheering him on will be two factors in favor of the Hawkeye.
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| #5 Marcus Blaze Vs #4 Drake Ayala 133 |
Here's another match the Hawkeyes can win. There's no reason at all why a senior, who is a two-time NCAA DI runner-up can't beat a true freshman. In the subtext of what I just said, we may be starring the issue right in the face. Sanderson & the Lions of Mount Nittany are waltzing into Iowa City without a worry on their mind. They see this as an opportunity to dine on fine poultry and have a good time while doing it. Does Iowa see this as an opportunity? Or do they see it as a pressure?
"Dean Peterson, you beat Luke Lilledahl before, this time beat him by more?" Or "Dean Peterson, you beat Luke Lilledahl before, you better not lose to him in Iowa City?"
"Drake Ayala, go out there and show this punk freshman why you're a two-time DI finalist?" Or "Drake Ayala, you're a two-time finalist, you better not lose to a true freshman?"
And who the Hell am I to wonder if that's a problem at Iowa or not? I'm a freakin nobody from Sigourney, Iowa, who has accomplished as much in wrestling as I have in space exploration. Yet, it's an observation that I've been making for a long time, and I can't help but wonder if it contributes to issues that are going on at Iowa.
Jordan Williams recently won the Soldier Salute. He didn't look the least bit happy or satisfied in defeating respectable opponents in J Conway & Teague Travis. You know what he looked like? He looked relieved. I didn't see a guy that held his trophy with pride and honor, I saw a guy who looked reassured that he hadn't faced the same fate of being upset the way Nasir Bailey had been earlier.
This has been rather revealing ever since the transfer portal opened up. It's not just my imagination. I'm not just talking Nasir Bailey & Jordan Williams either, although they are two examples. Kyle Parco, Jacori Teemer, Stephen Buchanan. You go back and watch any of the matches these guys wrestled throughout the season for their prior teams & you tell me that you don't notice a difference in their demeaner compared to when they wrestled for Iowa.
The mentality of Iowa is and always has been, wrestle to not only win, but wrestle to dominate. And they do that at times. Other times they don't. It looked to me, from my seat in Hilton Coliseum that the Hawkeyes didn't come into Ames to beat the Cyclones, but to make sure that they didn't lose to the Cyclones...and anyone that knows sports, knows that there is a major difference in the two philosophies.
I'm not going to rant and rave all day, but I do know on the one side of things we have a determined and hungry 19 year old kid who is two years shy of being able to legally celebrate all he'll accomplish within that time. He's coming in here not only wanting to upend a two-time NCAA DI silver medalist but knowing in his heart that he will. On the other side, we have a poised and proven twice over senior who I'd like to say is thinking that he's gonna give this rookie a good ol' fashioned welcome to DI wrestling beating. Can't help but wonder though if the real mentality is, "I can't lose this match, I can't lose this match, I cannot lose this match." Actions speak louder than words, and so will speak the actions Friday night.
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| (#9) Braeden Davis Vs #12 Nasir Bailey 141 |
Aaron Nagao is the one with the #9 ranking, but he is out of commission at the time, and I'm pretty sure that if Intermat were to rank Braeden Davis, he'd be in a similar spot. The last that Davis & Nasir Bailey met, it was a tight 1-0 decision for Davis. Thus, heavily suggesting once again that this is a match that could go either way. I mean we might not start the dual at 125 lbs, but I think most likely we will. Going into 149 lbs, it could be Iowa 9 Penn State 0. From an objective, laws of probability standpoint, that is a possibility. It could just as easily be Iowa 0 Penn State 9.
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| #1 Shayne Van Ness Vs #7 Ryder Block 149 |
For Iowa's sake, let's hope that things went the Hawks way 125 through 141, because they aren't going to at 149. I have been nothing but praise for how well Ryder Block has been wrestling this season. I have given testimony many times thus far in '25-'26 of how the Sebolt trained Block from Waverly-Shellrock, has silenced his critics and made fools of his doubters. I'll continue to do so throughout the remainder of the season, but I also promised to be realistic and fair in my writing. He ain't beating the two-time NCAA DI bronze medalist, who is looking to end it all in gold. The hope here is to keep it to a decision.
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| #4 P.J. Duke Vs #12 Jordan Williams 157 |
This match is interesting. I'll give it a similar vibe to 133 lbs, although I'll acknowledge there are differences. At the end of the day, it still seems that it comes down to pressure, and how it is handled differently by each team. In particularly this isn't just an Iowa issue either, as you see it across the board of all collegiate wrestling. Sensational freshmen like P.J. Duke and Marcus Blaze, compete like they have nothing to lose. That's why they are so successful. Often times seniors wrestle like they have a lot to lose. I can see that being the story of this match, and like a sequel to a beloved film, I can go in hoping that this won't be the case but fearing that it will. It's not a matter of who will win, it's a matter of WHY they will win. I have no issue with Duke defeating Williams because the two go head-to-head in a fierce battle, and Duke is simply the better wrestler. It does bug me something fierce though if Duke wins this match because Williams wrestles not to lose, fearful of making mistakes, so he doesn't try anything.
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| #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink Vs #3 Mikey Caliendo 165 |
Funny to think, but when it is all said and done, Mitchell Mesenbrink & Mikey Caliendo will have most likely met 9 times in their collegiate careers. Thus far Mesenbrink is 6-0 Vs his Hawkey opponent, but the gap has narrowed significantly. It started off with absolute annihilations of 19-4 & 23-7 technical falls. Then it was a 17-9 major decision. A 12-6 wide decision & an 8-2 decision. Finally, a very close 4-1 decision. I've probably already said enough in this post to put a bounty on my head but let me now know for sure that Brands would recommend JT1Wrestle for the death penalty. IF Caliendo is to have a win within one of these nine meetings, it is going to have to be this Friday night. Keep in mind the BIG 10's are at Penn State this year. I'm a man of great imagination, but Mesenbrink losing out on a BIG 10 title, when they're at home? I think that's harder to conceive than trying to picture the billions upon billions of stars within the observable universe. The magic of Carver Hawkeye Arena is the fact that some crazy, inconceivable things have happened there countless times in the past. The over/under heavily favors the blue & white here, but if you hear a roar of thunder in the corridor Friday night, it's not coming from the Eastern Iowa Airport.
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| #1 Levi Haines Vs #3 Patrick Kennedy 174 |
I'm going to go back to this belief that wrestlers do not improve under Iowa, and once again call bullshit. I think Patrick Kennedy has steadily improved during his career. He went from a "is this guy gonna make varsity?" to an All-American last season, and at the moment he is ranked #3 in a very competitive weight class. Put your money where your mouth is, right? To really see how much he's improved between '24-'25 and '25-'26, he'll be tested against Levi Haines. It's been very one-sided in three matchups thus far. Haines has defeated Kennedy 11-3, 10-3, 10-3. Keeping to a decision of course will be a night and day difference in this dual, compared to a major. However, that shouldn't be the goal and hopefully isn't. Not at this stage of the game anyway. I've ate my words before, and when you write a couple hundred articles every season, that's a part of it. So if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I say Kennedy makes this a much better match fourth time around.
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| #4 Rocco Welsh Vs #1 Angelo Ferrari 184 |
How often do you see Penn State go into anything where they're the underdog? You can be missing fingers on both hands, and still probably count the total number of times. On Twitter here a while back, discussion of who would win this year's NCAA DI title at 184 lbs got brought up. Angelo Ferrari, Aeoden Sinclair & Max McEnelly were the names brought up. Penn State fans were insulted and infuriated that Rocco Welsh's name wasn't thrown into the hat. They're in an uproar that he's ranked "as low" as 4th.
Well, if that is the case, and his name does belong alongside Ferrari, Sinclair & McEnelly, we'll know no questions about it on Friday night. When you have that #1 next to your name, the B&G faithful see you as the reliable one. The one they know they can always count on. Pressure, the word once again presents itself, but of all the Hawkeyes, I believe that Ferrari handles it best. This is a must win for Iowa, no matter how you slice it.
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| #1 Josh Barr Vs #4 Massoma Endene 197 |
As a guy that also has a clear love & passion for NCAA DII, DIII, NAIA & NJCAA wrestling, it has been extraordinarily rewarding watching Massoma Endene wrestle so well this season for Iowa. No one is gonna come out and say they were wrong, but their sudden silence is victory enough. "He's just a D3 wrestler" for the most part as been eradicated & the idea that he's a serious threat to NCAA DI All-American status is in. With that said, he has #1 Josh Barr.
I do think the former Wartburg Knight will give Barr a respectable match, but as it was against Rocky Elam, I think a similar fate is in due. 125, 133, 141, 157 & dare I say it even 165 as far as I'm concerned are winnable matches for the Hawks. 184, more than winnable. 149? 174? 197? Penn State is ranked #1 for a reason. Toss ups are one thing, but where they're heavily favored? Plain and simple, they do not disappoint.
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| #15 Cole Mirasola Vs #5 Ben Keuter HWT |
Will Iowa need bonus points at this time of the dual? Yes. Will Iowa get bonus points at this time of the dual? Uh..... If Iowa is going to get any bonus points this dual, it'll be here at HWT. On paper there is a lot of space between a #15 & a #5. Not sure if that space will be as significant on the mat though. This is the only match Iowa should feel comfortable in. Not absolutely secure, but comfortable.
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Again, objectively speaking....
125, 133, 141, 157, 184....Calling these the "could go either way matches"
165 is the most likely gonna go PSU's way, but I'll give it that smidgen of a chance
149, 174, 197, Nittany Lions are gonna win here
HWT, this should be 3 for Iowa
So again, on paper, Iowa can be in this thing. The idea of Iowa going 5 for 5 & Penn State going 0 for 5 in the tossups has a very, very low % of happening, but it isn't zero.
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