I'm going to write this similarly to how I wrote my piece on the upcoming 2019 BIG 10's.
2. What I would seed them (Pay attention to the colors above)
3. My thoughts
125 lbs
1. Piccininni
2. Fleetwood3. Schwarm
4. Mackall
5. Montoya
6. Moody
7. Verner
8. Flores
I don't know if I'm necessarily in agreement with the NCAA in allotting five spots here. Personally I only would have given out two. With that said Piccininni is arguably the best wrestler in the nation right now, and based on previous results listed in the picture above should win his third consecutive BIG XII title with relative ease.
I imagine Christian Moody will the the #6 seed and I can see him knocking someone else out of their spot for qualification. He's already a two time BIG XII place-winner and NCAA qualifier but entering with a 10-7 record, I'm almost positive he is not one of the five who got an allotment so he'll have to steal a spot.
133 lbs
1. Fix
2. Gomez
3. Bridges
4. Schmitt
5. Sykora
6. Madrigal
Even with the enormous depth of the 133 lbs weight class, the NCAA and I are in agreement as to five allotments. I'll even go as far as to say that upon things working out as they should that Madrigal might stand a chance at qualification.
Fix is without question the forerunner here, although I question if he is as invincible as some make him out to be. He's already suffered one loss this season, and with as close as their last meeting was, may succumb to Iowa State's Gomez the next time they meet. That is of course, if they meet. Matches at this weight class have been tight, decided by a mere point or two and could go the other way upon a second meeting.
141 lbs
1. Alber
2. Parker
3. Demas
4. Brock
5. Turner
6. Findlay
As far as I'm concerned the BIG XII has earned six allotments at this weight class and the NCAA is in agreement with me because they gave six allotments. I believe the six I granted are the six that will go. Northern Iowa's Josh Alber is as I've illustrated in previous blogs the best senior in NCAA Division I wrestling yet to make All American status. For the record let me state that he is also the best senior in the BIG XII yet to win a conference championship. It's a feel good story that I hope to see end on a high note in both situations. One that coaches ought to look to, when finding ways to inspire and encourage their kids.
With that said it'll be anything but a cake walk for Alber to win his first title. Parker, Demas and Brock will fight him tooth and nail for it. Parker the best wrestler from the 2017-2018 season not to qualify for the NCAA's last year. Demas, one of the best freshman the Sooners have seen since Cody Brewer. Lastly Brock, a two time BIG XII runner-up in his own right who has struggled since moving up from 133 lbs.
149 lbs
1. Gfeller
2. Thomsen
3. Jeffries
4. Degen
5. Monserrat
6. Olivas
7. Pohlmeyer
8. Van Maanen
9. Opsal
A rather loaded weight class, and again the NCAA and I are in agreement that seven have earned allotments. I think the finals will come down to Gfeller vs either Thomsen or Jeffries. Thomsen will get the #2 seed over Jeffries as he won a head to head meeting, but it should be an interesting semi-final. Jeffries finished at the BIG XII runner-up as a freshman and sophomore to finish a disappointing sixth last season. Along with being ranked far below Degen whom he controlled easily 12-5, that may be enough to light a fire under his ass and put him back into the finals.
I think the wrestler here to not sleep on will be South Dakota State's Henry Pohlmeyer who seems to live and die by the fall. He's wrestled thirty matches this season and about a third of them have ended by fall. Six pins Vs being pinned three times. A strong upper body and a "go for broke" style, opponents seem to end up on their back quite a bit when wrestling Pohlmeyer. Could be the case at the BIG XII's.
Also look for Alec Opsal of Air Force to possibly pull off an upset. He upended Tommy Thorn earlier this season at the CKLV and he damn near pulled off an upset vs Olivas.
1. Thomas
2. Straw
3. Sheets
4. Wright
5. Krueger
6. Mossing
7. Moore
As you can tell I DO NOT agree with the NCAA only allotting one spot at this weight class for the BIG XII. I'll admit that it might not have earned many throughout the year, but only one? I guess I have to live with that.
If I were a guessing man, I'd have to guess that Oklahoma's Justin Thomas gets the #1 seed here. He has a loss to Sheets, but he beat Straw and Straw beat Sheets twice. So with that parity, I guess I would give the #1 seed to Thomas. We'll see who gets it when the time comes.
Lastly I'll say that I wish Alex Mossing of the Air Force had one iota of a clue as to how good he is. If you watch the guy wrestle you can tell that he always seems to be holding something back. That he's apprehensive and afraid of letting loose and opening up. I'm not sure why. Maybe senioritis? He knows this is his last year, and he's afraid of failing? I don't know. It's wishful thinking to think that at his last tournament he'd finally let loose and unlock the potential that he has. With the NCAA only allotting one spot, I think Mossing finishes out his career as one of the better ones to have never made the NCAA tournament. In saying so, I'd still love to see him have a good tournament. A few upsets and maybe something like a third place finish.
165 lbs
2. Rogers
3. Romero
4. Steiert
5. Kiussis
6. Fogarty
7. Hokit
I'm in agreement with the NCAA here. They granted six allotments here and it is the same amount that I would have given. With that said, I can see Hokit possibly stealing Fogarty's or Fogarty possibly stealing Hokit's. I assume Fogarty will get the nod on seeding as he has a better record and a closer match with Romero than Hokit does.
I'm fairly confident that the finals match will be a familiar clash between Ashworth and Rogers, one that we've seen three times already. However I give it a very small percentage of a chance, but Romero could sneak in there. He showed us how dangerous he can be earlier this season with a third place showing in Vegas, which included a 9-6 victory over Michigan's Logan Massa who had tech'd him earlier in the tournament. With Rogers having already finished 2nd-2nd-1st in three BIG XII appearances it is highly unlikely that Romero keeps him from his fourth finals appearance, but anything is possible.
174 lbs
1. Smith
2. Bastian
3. Lujan
4. Hastings
5. Coleman
6. Riva
This is a weird weight class where I see head to head results possibly going straight out the window and the seeding being based strictly on the rankings. I don't agree with that, but I can't see the BIG XII giving Hastings the #1 seed and seeding Smith #4. We'll see when the time comes.
And speaking of Smith, I realize that Jacobe Smith is the one currently ranked at 174 lbs. I realize that, but for this preview I put him at 184. Why? Because he's wrestled 184 this season and the Cowboys have to put Joe Smith somewhere. John is going to put Joe where he believes Joe has the best shot and at least in my opinion that place is 174 lbs. All year I've been trying to figure out exactly what the game plan is. All I can figure is the reason we've seen so little of Joe Smith this year, is because father John wants him to be a secret weapon. That he has something hidden that he'll reveal at the NCAA tournament. I don't know. That probably isn't why but that's all I can come up with.
184 lbs
1. Smith
2. Foster
3. Colbray
4. Hemauer
5. Samuelson
Once again the NCAA and I see eye to eye. They say five allocations, I say five allocations. Again I believe that Oklahoma State will put Jacobe Smith as the starter here, but maybe they won't. Maybe he'll be at 174 and Joe will be at 184. I don't know. All I know is that Joe will be a starter at the BIG XII. That's about the only guarantee I can give you concerning the Cowboys.
With that said one of the things I love about this weight class is how it illustrates that past results don't always matter. Sam Colbray was annihilated by Drew Foster earlier this season only to come back and defeat him in a competitive match. I'm anxious for match number three which is a likely semi-finals bout.
197 lbs
1. Woodley
2. Hokit
3. Miklus
4. Weigel
5. Orndorff
6. Mclaughlin
7. Seely
8. Adams
9. Eaton
The NCAA is allotting seven at this weight class, whereas I would have given eight. So pretty much on the same page. In my opinion this is the most competitive and fun weight class in the BIG XII. I can see a lot happening here. No question to anyone that I'm a huge Weigel fan and I'd love to see him win his third BIG XII title. Easier said than done in this loaded bracket, especially when I'm not sold that he's 100% in the health department.
One can never forget that good luck always seems to find its way onto the side of Willie Miklus. He maybe ought to take a trip out to Vegas for a graduation present this May. If his luck in gambling is anything like his luck in wrestling, he'll walk out owning Caesar's Palace.
Lastly I'll say that both West Virginia's Noah Adams and North Dakota State's Cordell Eaton could plausibly steal spots. If 197 goes the way that it ought to on paper (which is most certainly will not) I can see whoever takes eighth place here getting an at large selection.
HWT
1. White
2. Gremmel
3. Nevills
4. Orndorff
5. Andrews
6. Isley
And for HWT, the NCAA and I are once again in agreement. We both allotted six.
Ah!!!!! I just realized that I got the Orndorff brothers mixed up! Tate is at HWT and Tanner is at 197. So note that. It's very time consuming to make the pictures with the records attached and I am pressed for time right now! Otherwise I'd fix it.
With that said, I think that the seeding here ought to be about how they finish. I can see Isley turning a few of those overtime losses into wins. I think that is a possibility.
NORTHERN IOWA
I see the Panthers sending seven wrestlers to the NCAA's this year
OKLAHOMA STATE
The Cowboys as they have many times throughout the history of BIG XII wrestling ought to own the conference this year. I see nine going for sure and a possibility of ten. A lot depends on how 157 lbs shapes up.
OKLAHOMA
The safe bet is four, although I can see the Sooners sending as many as six
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
All of the changes that the jackrabbit wrestling program have gone through in the past year have not been kind. This is certainly a rebuilding season. They ought to have at least one qualifier though.
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
The Bison ought to send for sure three, with as many as five to this year's NCAA's.
WYOMING
A relatively young team with only one senior on the squad. Six I see going this year. Anxious for years to come.
IOWA STATE
It didn't take Kevin Dresser and company very long to show that he meant business upon coming to Iowa State. I see eight for sure and as many as nine going to the NCAA's for the Cyclones. As far as I'm concerned Chase Straw should have been an allocation, but that's not how the NCAA saw it.
WEST VIRGINIA
Three, maybe four for the Mountaineers this year
NORTHERN COLORADO
I see two NCAA qualifiers for Coach Nickerson this season.
UTAH VALLEY
I think the Wolverines are a team of the future. I really do. They'll send five to the NCAA's this year, and with the return of Taylor Lamont next season could end up a top 10 team next year. They don't seem to be as good in duals as they are in tournaments and the BIG XII's could illustrate that fact.
AIR FORCE
I personally feel that the Falcons are much better than one qualifier, but looking at stats, allocations and results its hard to realistically see anyone other than McLaughlin going to this year's NCAA's. I'd love to see both Opsal and Mossing up their game, but it'll be difficult for either one. Opsal would have to have a great draw and Mossing would practically have to win 157 lbs in order to qualify.
FRESNO STATE
The Bulldog program continues to grow as I see four, maybe five NCAA qualifiers. I think it is so cool the way Josh Hokit is a star on both the gridiron and the mat. We don't get to see multiple sport athletes very often.
No comments:
Post a Comment