2021 BIG 12 PREVIEW

 

125 lbs 

With only four allocations, the fight here to earn one will be an all out war.  Not only do you have the eight seeded wrestlers competing for one of those four spots, you also have at least two if not three unseeded wrestlers who will be competing as well. I don't think that Wyoming's Cole Verner will be wrestling in this tournament because he hasn't wrestled all season. However if he is going to compete, he most certainly needs mentioned as he not only poses a threat at qualification, he poses a threat towards the title. 

Brody Teske of Northern Iowa has more than proven himself as a Panther.  After some struggle to find the right fit, it's obvious that Cedar Falls is "home."  Most impressive among his victories this season is his 6-0 upending of #3 seed Trevor Mastrogiovanni of Oklahoma State.  I swear after Piccininni graduated John Smith told his staff to go out and find another 125 lbs'er whose name is impossible to spell and pronouce.  Nevertheless I myself debated whether to give the #2 to Taylor LaMont of Utah Valley or to him.  Looks like the seeding committee gave the nod to LaMont.  Seniority and experience over the true freshman.  Should be an exciting semi-final, IF it happens. 

If you look over the matches provided above, there's been a bit of parity and a lot of close 1-2 point matches.  This gives testimony to the hypothesis that the seeds are not likely to hold up.  

#4 Killian Cardinale of West Virginia has some nice victories this season, but his 3-1 loss to #8 Mason Naifeh of Oklahoma does show his susceptibility to a loss. It'd be nice to see him do well here, considering that Old Dominion left him high and dry when they unremorsefully cut the program.  Speaking of Naifeh, although he has kept many of his losses close this season, Cardinale is his only victory on the season. As these tournaments are often a war of attrition, I think this poses well for one of the unseeded wrestlers to knock him out of his spot. 

#6 Cody Phippen of Air Force I think could be the wrestler to watch here. When he showed up at the tail end of last season, I thought with the way he wrestled at the BIG 12's he might end up replacing Sid Flores as the Falcons starter.  Indeed he has.  He took Teske into a wild 13-11 match. 

Lastly I think Iowa State would've been safe going with Alex Mackall as much as they are going with Kysen Terukina.  In fact with Mackall's only loss being a close 6-4 decision to Teske, seeding wise, considering last year's results were used, they might have been better off going with Mackall.  Nevertheless, Terukina should have a decent showing.  It's not often we see wrestlers from Hawaii. It adds a bit of excitement when we do.  

Overall with at large bids, I think it highly depends on who places where, but I can see as many as seven NCAA qualifiers. 

 

133 lbs 

Another tough, tough weight class where ten wrestlers will fight for only four allocations.  To think how much tougher this weight class would be if Iowa State's Austin Gomez wasn't out.  Or what if NCAA DI wrestling was like the NAIA.  If that were the case, Reece Witcraft would be entered too.  Testimony to the toughness that is DI wrestling and further testimony to why I make such a big deal out of all of the programs we've lost. Some find it a waste of time. Something to make light of, but I'd rather have these programs back.  Reinstated.  The more programs we have, the less we see talent sit as backups. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but numbers games often play out that way. 

Off that tangent and back on topic, it's clear, cut and dry that #1 Daton Fix of Oklahoma State owns this weight class.  It's the rest of it that's going to be a barnburner.  The parity here makes it difficult to determine exactly what will happen.  What I will say is that unseeded Haiden Drury of Fresno State stands a good chance at getting on the podium in my opinion.  Love to see him do really well as sorta of a "up your's" to a school that has already told him that they don't value him or his accomplishments.  It's sad, depressing and frankly pathetic that after all of the hard work that was put into reinstating the Bulldog program, that they turn around and discontinue it again. 

With that said, I refuse to believe that U.S. Kyle Biscoglia of Northern Iowa doesn't finish in the top eight here.  Matter of fact, I think he'll finish a lot higher than eighth place, but the idea of him not placing at all is unfathomable to me.  He stuck #3 Zach Price of South Dakota State earlier this season and had a long 6-5 tiebreaker loss to #7 Redding.    

As to how may qualifiers once you add in the at large bids? Again, upsets will determine that and of course you have to look at all of the other conferences.  I say as many as 10 here.  Wishful thinking, but this weight class is tough.  

141 lbs 

As I look this weight class over my heart goes out to Iowa State's Todd Small.  He's worked hard to find his spot among the Cyclone lineup but with as tough as it is, he'll sit this BIG XII tournament out. Personally I feel that Iowa State would've been just as well off with him as they are with Redding at 133 lbs.  Nevertheless not questioning their decision, simply making a case for Small. Another tough backup. 

In this case we only have three allocations.  I think realistically it's a fight among seven wrestlers, but history tells me that it is unwise to overlook and write off three other capable wrestlers.     

The finals is slated to be #1 Ian Parker of Iowa State Vs #2 Dom Demas of Oklahoma, but I do not see that being etched in stone.  Demas didn't exactly take the world by storm in a tight 3-2 victory over #3 Carlson, who needed sudden victory himself to defeat #7 Droegemueller of North Dakota State. 

It'd make my day to see #4 D.J. Lloren upset his way into the finals.  Another middle finger to Fresno State in their unremorseful decision to cut the Bulldog wrestling program.  Not a great probability.  Loren over Parker in what could be our semi-final is a very tall order.  

As the rest of the weight class unfolds I imagine some are rolling their eyes and taking a few cheap shots at ole Johnnythompsonnum1 for including West Virginia's Caleb Rea in this discussion. Based on this year's results of an 0-5 record, which includes an 11-0 throttling at the hands of #8 Chase Zollman of Wyoming, I can't say I blame them.  However, keep in mind that Rea won 17 matches last season.  Among them #6 Sandoval, #3 Carlson, damn near teching #5 Peterson 14-2 and sticking #2 Dom Demas.  

149 lbs 

Most certainly more straight forward here than at the previous five weights.  149 lbs takes the top four in allocations but it is almost a given that there will be an at large bid for a fifth qualifier.  Matter of fact #5 Jarrett Degen of Iowa State stands a darkhorse chance at walking out the BIG 12 champion.  He's been third here twice, along with one second, so making the finals is a possibility.  He'd have to knock off #1 Boo Lewallen of Oklahoma State in order to get there, which is doable. Lewallen has pinned Degen in the past, but Degen has taken him into sudden victory as well. 

As To the rest of the weight class, it'll be a battle between #2 Andrew Alirez of Northern Colorado, #3 Mitch Moore of Oklahoma and #4 Triston Lara of Northern Iowa.  

157 lbs 

A couple of takeaways from this weight class. First and foremost I believe that #1 David Carr of Iowa State can make a run at the NCAA title this season.  With that said I do believe that #2 Justin Thomas of Oklahoma will give him a decent match in the BIG 12 finals.  Carr defeated Thomas 4-0 earlier this season, but I believe with the adjustments Thomas will make it'll make for a tighter match. 

I'll be interested to see if #3 Jared Franek of North Dakota State can defeat #4 Cade DeVos of South Dakota State for a third time this season.  They say when matches are that close, it's hard to beat someone three times in a row.  

I'd hate to think that #5 Jacob Wright of Wyoming would stay home for the second time in his career.  He barely missed out on NCAA qualification two years ago as a freshman at Fresno State. Yet with the BIG 12 only having two allocations here, I think he's going to almost have to out wrestle his fifth seed.  

Lastly, I wouldn't glance over #6 Wyatt Sheets of Oklahoma State.  I've been referring to him as "Box of Chocolates" Wyatt Sheets for quite some time now for good reason.  There's the Wyatt Sheets that got his rear handed to him 13-5 by Thomas & then there's the Wyatt Sheets that gave Thomas a scare in a 4-3 tiebreaker.  If you look over Sheet's career, these examples are abundant. There's the Sheets that could upset his way to the finals and there's the Sheets that will finish in sixth place.  It all depends on which one shows up to wrestle. 

165 lbs 

History repeats itself as we see another Cowboy in the long illustrious tradition of Oklahoma State wrestling take the #1 seed.  Travis Wittlake has looked tough this year and should walk out as this year's champion.   As to his opponent in the finals?  The semi-final between #2 Peyton Hall of West Virginia and #3 Cole Moody of Wyoming should prove to be a good one. In a "could've gone either way" match, Hall edged Moody 7-6 earlier this season. 

As to the rest of the weight class?  Their are four allocations here and as far as I'm concerned that fourth place spot is up for grabs. The real monkey wrench in all of his could be Northern Iowa's Austin Yant.  He's only wrestled once this season, hence the low #7 seed.  Based on capabilities though, he is as good as fourth. 

174 lbs 

First things first, I'm not sure why Anthony Mantalvo of Oklahoma State wasn't seeded.  I imagine that he will NOT be wrestling in the BIG 12 tournament & I'm going to treat the situation as if he's not. 

With that out of the way, I am glad to see Demetrius Romero of Utah Valley wrestling as well as he has been this season. A career full of setbacks and injuries, it's rewarding to see him doing as well as he has.  I think many have already slated their ideas for who will be this year's NCAA champion, but whether anyone agrees with me or not, I do think Romero belongs in the discussion. I feel sometimes he wrestles a bit too conservatively and I'd like to see him open up a bit more. The guy has an excellent offense, which I believe is capable of penetrating anyone's defense. That includes Starocci, Masa, Labriola, Washington and yes, even Kemerer. 

As to the rest of the weight class, I think the fight for the other two allocations will be absolute chaos and I'm pretty sure at least a couple if not a few at large bids will be awarded here when it is all said and done.    

Who I am most anxious to watch here is #8 Anthony Mantanona of Oklahoma.  He was looking good last year.  All American caliber.  I was hoping to see him really take the wrestling world by storm and improve even more than he did last season.  It's been difficult watching him wrestle this season, losing matches he was more than capable of winning.  His 7-4 victory over #3 Dustin Plott of Oklahoma State has shed light on the situation though. Given a glimmer of hope.  He wrestles like he is capable of, I don't see him defeating Romero, but I think he can beat anyone else in the weight class. 

Look for Julien Broderson of Iowa State, who goes in without a seed to knock someone off for a place on the award stand. 

184 lbs 

I've been following NCAA Division I wrestling for twenty seasons now and while Northern Iowa has had some good freshmen, I have to conclude that #1 seed Parker Keckeisen is the best that I have ever seen.  I think winning a BIG 12 title will be anything but easy.  He has yet to wrestle #2 Tate Samuelson of Wyoming and both of his matches versus #3 Dakota Geer of Oklahoma State and #4 Alan Clothier of Northern Colorado have been close.   

Only three allocations here, but I'd be shocked if less than  five once at large bids are factored in aren't sent to the NCAA tournament. 

197 lbs 

This is a fun weight class.  Of all of the BIG 12 weight classes this is the one I look forward to the most.  I think it is a three, maybe even a four man battle for the title.  #4 A.J. Ferrari of Oklahoma State vs #5 Jake Woodley of Oklahoma will determine who faces #1 Tanner Sloan of South Dakota State in what should be the semi-finals.  Ferrari has defeated Woodley twice this season, but defeating someone of Woodley's caliber three times in a row will be a challenge. 

Speaking of defeating someone three times in a row, #2 Stephen Buchanan of Wyoming seems to have #3 Noah Adams of West Virginia's number this year. They've been close, but Buchanan has came out on top in two exciting matches.  It's likely to be our other semi-final.  It'll be a good one. 

Then of course #6 Sam Colbray of Iowa State fits in here somewhere as well.  Only four allocations, a likelihood of at least six qualifications after at large bids are factored in. 

The guy to watch here is unseeded Jacob Seely of Northern Colorado.  I realize that among a 13-1 loss to Adams and a 7-2 loss to Buchanan he was also pinned by Air Force's Kayne Hutchison.  Perhaps I'm wrong, but I feel that was nothing more than a fluke.   He was eighth two years ago and fourth last season.  He's also defeated both Adams and Buchanan in the past as well. While I'm not certain of NCAA qualification, I am very confident that somewhere between sixth and eighth, maybe even higher he finds his way onto the award stand. 

HWT 

I'm anxious to see if Iowa State's Gannon Gremmel can hold on to his #1 seed and wrestle his way through a fairly tough BIG 12 tournament to a title.  Conditioning seems to be a bit of a weakness for Gremmel, which makes him better suited for a one on one duel vs the grueling grind of a tournament. Being the #1 seed, he should find himself easily enough in the semis.  He needed a tiebreaker to get past #4 Josh Heindselman of Oklahoma the last time the two met. 

It'll be interesting to see how #3 Brian Andrews of Wyoming shapes up against the rest of the field.  A semi-final between him and #2 Carter Isley of Northern Iowa should be a good one. 

In a Weight class that has four allocations, look for #7 Brandon Metz of North Dakota State to outdo his seed.  Had some slipups in getting pinned twice this season when he shouldn't have, but he did keep it close in a 2-0 loss to Gremmel.  Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him pull off a couple of upsets.