The NCAA wrestling season is nearly upon us and everyone of us have expectations and hopes for what will happen. If I were to tell you all of mine, this list would be a novel, if not an epic. Therefore I'll keep it at my top 10.
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| 10. Patrick Downey stays out of trouble and remains eligible the entire season |
Downey's departure from Ames and his ending up in Iowa City is already big news. With the graduation of Gilman, Clark, Meyer and Brooks this looked to be a down year for Hawkeyes. Yet with Marinelli, Happel and possibly Lee joining the varsity lineup, it might not be as much of a rebuilding year as first thought. Also throw in that Sam Stoll could have a full season of health (yet another wish on the list) and the Hawks might finish just as good or even better than they did at the end of 2017.
Regardless of who starts and who doesn't (Iowa's backups could plausibly finish top 20 on their own) and how optimistic or pessimistic you are about the Hawkeye's future one thing is for certain. From a a strict winning perspective, they are better off with Downey than without. One would think that staying clean and out of trouble, fixated on winning an individual NCAA title would be a no brainer for Downey. Yet history has a voice too loud to not be heard regarding this issue, and it's tough to know where we'll be a half year down the road.
Many scenarios are possible. By season's end, Iowa could darkhorse their way to a top four team finish (Flo has Iowa 10th, Intermat has Iowa 9th, WIN has Iowa 10th). If they do it will be WITH Downey's assistance. Another possibility is that Downy makes like Andrew Long messes up early on and come March he's a distant memory. I'm hoping for the prior.
Downey is good for wrestling. Love him or hate him, he is a subject of interest. He gets butts into seats. Some come to watch him win. Some come to watch him lose. Either way, they come. He generates discussion and he brings an essence of excitement that amateur wrestling craves but often lacks.
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| 9. Markus Scheidel makes All American |
Yes, Scheidel is one of my personal favorites for the 2017-2018 season, but I also want to see him AA for other reasons as well. For one, he wrestles for Columbia and Columbia has only had a total of 5 wrestlers make All American status in their history, the last being Steve Santos in 2013. Seeing smaller schools, especially those as academically prestigious as Columbia produce All Americans is healthy for the sport. I also want to see Scheidel have a breakout season and show the rankings committees of various websites and magazines they made a mistake by keeping him out of the top twenty. I mentioned earlier that I felt Scheidel's absence on a few lists was a mistake and I was ignored. Let's see in a few months who was right and who was wrong. I'm banking Scheidel no lower than 15th by the end of December and an AA contender come conference tournament time.
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| 8. Anthony Ashnault becomes Rutger's first Four Time All American |
It would seem right now that this wish has 100% probability of coming true. Despite a serious illness or unfortunate injury, Ashnault will leave Cleveland, Ohio with a medal in hand and that medal could likely be gold. Rutgers deserves this monumental and historical moment. They've earned it. Not only have coaches and staff worked hard to build wrestling at Rutgers, they've worked hard to build wrestling period. New Jersey is one of the best when it comes to producing high school talent, and Rutgers has gone above and beyond to make sure that those kids have every reason to want to stay home to wrestle. (Rider is also doing a Hell of a job too, and yet another wish that didn't quite make top 10 is to see them have highest team finish ever.) Take a look at Rutgers schedule and the fun and exciting things they are doing to grow fan support and attendance. Crowning a four time All American is a step in the direction of becoming a perennial powerhouse and I'd love to see that happen for Rutger's this season.
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| 7. Jake Smith become an All American |
When I read that Jake Smith had suffered an injury and wouldn't be competing at the NCAA championships last season my heart sank. It's one thing to have an opponent keep you from reaching a goal, but to be denied the opportunity to even try because of a last second injury? That's a miscarriage of justice. When I read that he was granted a sixth year of eligibility I lit up. Not only do I think that Smith can make the award stand, I think he's good enough to make the finals. Both of his losses to Virginia Tech's Jared Haught were in overtime, and his loss to Ohio State's Kollin Moore was also close, 9-7. Throw in that he had wins over All Americans Aaron Studebaker (Nebraska) and Ryan Wolfe (Rider) to add merit to my belief. At first it seemed that Smith's career was going to end on a sour note because of an injury and now he could end up in the NCAA finals. It is fun to think about.
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| 6. Brooks Black makes the wrestling community remember the name Brooks Black |
HWT for various reasons has been a hot topic in preseason discussion. Most notably Kyle Snyder and if anyone can legitimately challenge him or not. Adam Coon's name comes up most often, with others spitting out Jacob Kasper and Tanner Hall from time to time. Listen close enough and occasionally you'll hear Amarveer Dhesi. You know a name that you never hear? Not even when simply talking about who will finish top eight amongst the big boys? Brooks Black of Illinois. This is largely due to a career plagued with injuries, but even at the possibility of coming back at 100% no one seems to take Black seriously. While many chalk up disappointing losses for Iowa's Sam Stoll as reflections of his injuries, they refuse to grant Black the same grace. Looking at the wins he's produced during his time at Illinois, it seriously makes one question why. Brooks most likely won't be challenging Snyder for a title. He most likely won't even be challenging Coon for a spot in the finals to challenge Snyder for the title. Yet challenge Kasper, Hall and Dhesi for third place at the NCAA championships? Most certainly. If healthy and 100%, he'll do what Pat DeGain of Indiana did years ago when he moved up from 197 to HWT for his final year of competition. He'll whip butt and take names as fans ask, "Who is this new freshman?" only to learn that he's a senior that they overlooked and should have paid better attention to for years.
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| 5. The Redemption of Chance Marsteller |
It takes a tremendous amount of hard work, dedication, sacrifice and talent to be a great wrestler. It takes an incredible amount of intestinal fortitude to look at yourself in the mirror, admit that you could be a better person and then not only commit to yourself but commit to the whole world that you will do everything in your power to become that better person. The wrestling community while in many ways a wonderful, loving and awesome family to be a part of can also be quite harsh. A deeply religious and conservative community, wrestling doesn't take kindly to illegal shenanigans and can be as unforgiving as it is judgmental. For Chance Marsteller to look these challenges straight in the face and come at them head on is quite admirable. To admit fault and take full responsibility for one's actions isn't an easy thing to do. Yet that is what Marsteller is doing and he's getting a second chance at Lock Haven.
I want to see him succeed. I want to see him continue on the straight and narrow and give troubled kids whether they're wrestlers or not someone to look up to. If he can change and he can make himself better, so can they. Some wrestlers think of themselves as only wrestlers. They feel no moral obligation or responsibility to be role models or figures for young people. I think Marsteller knows better and he is working hard to create the type of image that a young person can look up to and admire. I applaud that and I hope to see him succeed on the mat, as well as off.
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| 4. BJ Clagon and Ethan Ramos both AA in final season |
Both Clagon and Ramos hit the scene early on with All American finishes as freshmen, but their sophomore and junior seasons they've fallen short of reaching that goal again. It was hard watching Clagon come so close last season only to lose by 1 point in the blood round. As for Ramos, how can you not cheer for the guy? Talk about a positive, upbeat and optimistic attitude. You want to see the guy win. I was really hoping what doesn't seem that long ago that both of these guys would end their careers as four time All Americans. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen, but I have strong faith that both will become two time All Americans at the end of their collegiate careers.
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| 3. Fresno State puts a wrestler on the Award Stand |
Fresno State wrestling is back! May I repeat, FRESNO STATE WRESTLING IS BACK!! WOOOO!!! And why wait? Why not put someone on the award stand right away? I hate to put unfair pressure or expectation on Emilio Saavedra but dude, you are the man! You are the one with the opportunity and power to make it happen. (Don't get me wrong other Bulldog wrestlers will too, but Saavedra is who I put the most confidence in.) Show the administration that they made the right decision. Show the athletic director and president of Fresno State that Bulldog wrestling means business and they'll produce success and it won't take them 10 years to do it.
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| 2. Jason Tsirtsis silences his doubters and critics |
The return of Jason Tsirtsis has been another hot topic in wrestling as of late and to listen to fans talk about his potential has been disheartening and depressing to say the least. Here is a wrestler that won a national title as a freshman and then finished in third place as a sophomore and people insult the kid and wonder if he'll even be varsity come the start of the season. They point at a disappointing junior campaign and think that answers everything. It's clear to me that depression and the effect it can have on a person and their performance isn't something that is well understood by many. To go through the horrors that Tsirtsis went through a couple of years ago, it is a wonder he even wrestled as well as he did. Others want to point at his up and down performance at the Midlands. Again it takes time to recuperate mentally, physically and emotionally.
When I listen to these critics and doubters rag on Tsirtsis I want to walk up to them and slap them. Yet that isn't how you deal with these types of people. The only way to deal with them, is to hope that Tsirtsis walks into this season and wrestles as good as his potential says he can. That he has another NCAA title finish or runner up or third place. No one will admit they're wrong. There will be no crow eating, but they'll shut up and they'll disappear. It's not quite the same as slapping them upside the head for being so bitter and pessimistic but its not a bad consolation prize.
And what if I'm wrong? What if they're right? Well ok, but I have no shame in putting faith in Tsirtsis and backing him up with my belief in him and what I think he can do. You can look at my predictions I made a while back and I'm not afraid to say I have him winning 157 lbs. He wrestles 149 lbs, do I think he CAN beat Retherford? Yes, I think he can. A 100% Tsirtsis, and I mean that mentally and emotionally as much as I mean it physically can beat Retherford. Will he? I don't know.
I'm not a rich man. I can't put any money down and besides that's not only unethical, it also violates NCAA rules. However, I will say this. I predict Tsirtsis to finish top 3 regardless of which weight he ends up at.
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| 1. Michigan wins the Team NCAA Title |
Do I honestly believe that Michigan can upend Penn State and Ohio State and win the NCAA team title this year? Yes, I do. Will it take a tournament where everything has to fall into place and go right for Michigan while "going wrong" for others? Yes, but is that possible? Yes, it is.
Let's look at it logically.
Micic can and will contend for a title at 133 lbs. Kaid Brock and Seth Gross create his biggest challenge. I don't see him finishing any lower than third.
Be it Profaci or Fisher, I say we're looking at another All American at 141 lbs either way.
Pantaleo who I thought would be 157 this year, I think may be going 149. Either way, doesn't matter, AA.
Which then leaves me at Hall, who I also think can sneak in a low AA.
Defeating both Isaiah Martinez and Vincenzo Joseph for an NCAA title will be tough, but I do think that Massa will contend. Finishes no lower than third.
Amine I think can contend for a title at 174 lbs and I don't see him any worse than 4th.
Abounader can contend for the NCAA title and I think he will. (Did I really just say that? Yes, I did)
Beazley is an AA.
Coon is the most likely candidate to meet Snyder in the finals and as far as I'm concerned the only real threat Snyder has this season.
I hate using this terminology and I value all members of a team, but the only wrestler I don't see scoring serious points for the Wolverines is Assad at 125 lbs. Yet I do think he'll qualify and I do think he'll win a match or two at the NCAA tournament. In tight team races, those points add up.
I want to remain realistic while also calculating best case scenario.
125 - Assad (2-2)
133 - Micic (Champion)
141 - Fisher or Profaci (5th)
149 - Hall (8th)
157 - Pantaleo (2nd)
165: Massa (Champion)
174: Amine (Champion)
184: Abounader (Champion)
197: Beazley (2nd)
HWT: Coon (2nd)
That's the best I can see Michigan doing and if they do that well, they win the team title.
Taking off my maize and blue colored glasses I'm a bit more realistic in my "more fair" predictions if you want to call them that.
125: (2-2)
133: 3rd
141: 5th
149: (2-2)
157: 7th
165: 2nd
174: 4th
184: Champion
197: 4th
HWT: 2nd
Even with this prediction, that could still be enough to win the NCAA title. Eight All Americans, with one NCAA champion, two runner-ups and one third.
What favors Michigan most is an ability to put as many as 9 wrestlers on the award stand in All American status. What hurts them is whether they can get bonus points in route to these AA finishes or not.
And with that, there you have it. My top 2017-2018 NCAA Top 10 Wish List.
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